供需驱动弱势，PVC震荡走低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The current weak supply - demand pattern of PVC has not significantly improved. The supply side is under pressure due to new capacity and limited reduction, while the demand side has weak domestic demand and uncertain export prospects. The PVC market is under pressure with low valuation and lack of positive drivers. For caustic soda, the supply pressure is expected to increase, the demand support is weak, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,821 yuan/ton (-68), the East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (+68), and the South China basis is -21 yuan/ton (-22) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,800 yuan/ton (-90) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -504 yuan/ton (-10), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit is -7.9 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - Inventory and开工: The PVC factory inventory is 395,000 tons (-6,000), the PVC social inventory is 362,000 tons (+7,000), the PVC calcium carbide method开工 rate is 80.43% (+0.81%), the PVC ethylene method开工 rate is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the PVC开工 rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 629,000 tons (-19,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 2,358 yuan/ton (+39), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 48 yuan/ton (-70) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (-10), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 672.0 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 60.03 yuan/ton (-71.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 390,400 tons (+23,900), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 25,800 tons (-2,700), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 80.67% (-0.07%), the printing and dyeing East China开工 rate is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, the overall PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, but the chlor - alkali profit supported the production. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was in trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, offsetting the maintenance losses to some extent [3] - Demand side: The downstream product开工 rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and the export orders were stable with continuous growth. The extension of the BIS standard policy in India supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was still uncertain [3] - Inventory: The PVC social inventory stopped falling and rebounded due to sufficient supply and weak demand [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream开工 rate continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities from Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, increasing the supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The main downstream alumina开工 rate was stable, the spot price continued to fall, and there were no new production cuts or maintenance in the short term. The non - aluminum downstream demand was weak, and the Shandong spot price might continue to decline [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory increased due to the decline in spot price and low procurement enthusiasm [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. After the macro - sentiment eases, the PVC trend returns to the fundamentals. The supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral. The basis is gradually repaired, but the fundamentals lack positive drivers, the spot price is expected to continue to decline, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [4]