化工日报：PX基本面偏强，关注浮动价商谈-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. The fundamentals of PTA are weakening, but PX fundamentals remain tight, and the floating price of the spot is strongly maintained. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the expiration of the tariff extension deadline in July, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - In the short term, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver. The upside potential of gasoline cracking spreads is limited, and the demand for blending oil this year is not worth much expectation. PX short - flow plants have restarted external procurement of MX due to profit recovery [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and it is expected to decline to 89% - 90% in July. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3] - The fundamentals of PF are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited, and the demand is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The processing fee of PR is expected to recover with the implementation of production cuts, but the current profit is still low [4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral ratings of PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. There are no cross - variety strategies. For cross - period strategies, after the sentiment weakens, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long in the positive spread of PX/PTA monthly spreads at low prices [5] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The charts show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The charts present PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The charts display the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][35] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The charts present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The charts show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The charts show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][73][76] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The charts show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next next month - base month) [95][97][104]