尿素早评：供应仍有压力，转机在于出口-20250702

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be noted, but the subsequent turnaround depends on exports. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with upstream inventories close to 1 million tons. Although the top - dressing demand in July will support prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.81%. UR05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1694 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.12%. UR09 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, a relative change of 0.53% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - In Henan, it remained unchanged at 1780 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.56%; in the Northeast, it remained unchanged at 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.55% [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.89% [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1707 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1693 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1710 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 238,027 lots [1].