沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is mainly concerned about reciprocal tariffs, and the results and implementation of the 232 investigation may be postponed. The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't led to a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. The Fed's interest - rate cut is expected in September, October, or December. - Due to various factors such as mine production disruptions and smelter operations, the production and import of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper in July may change, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreasing. - Amid the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper enterprises may decline. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and pressure levels [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't caused a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. Trump may appoint a successor to Fed Chairman Powell in advance, and the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates is September, October, or December [3] 3.2 Upstream - Rio Tinto will pay nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit regarding the development delay of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia. The western side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under the control of a mining company resumed production in late June, but the drainage on the eastern side may last until September, reducing the planned mineral copper production in 2025 from 62 - 68 to 37 - 42 tons. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has shut down. The copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources in Namibia has stopped production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile has suspended production. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter may be put into production in June 2025 with an annual output of 600,000 tons of cathode copper. - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to conduct a 6 - week maintenance on its copper smelter in late October. Pan - Pacific Copper may cut production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Moura Isa copper smelter may shut down in the second half of 2025. Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan's Waryagba smelter will resume production in late June and reach full - load production in December. India's Jhagadia copper smelter resumed feeding on June 18 but still faces the risk of cancellation of long - term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates [3][4] 3.3 Investment Strategy - Due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, and the decline in electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] 3.4 Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 80,640, with an increase of 770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 113,449 lots, an increase of 12,504 lots. The open interest was 223,983 lots, an increase of 11,072 lots. The inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 24,773 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons. - The Shanghai copper basis was - 435, a decrease of 555 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in different regions also changed. For example, the spot premium of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou increased by 25, and the spot discount of electrolytic copper in North China decreased by 30. - The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange was 9,943, an increase of 65 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 91,250 tons. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.099, a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day. The total inventory increased by 2,858 tons [2]