FICC日报：马士基7月下半月第一周价格沿用，关注后期其他船司跟随情况-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of Maersk in the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, delaying the previous market expectation that the freight rate would peak in the first half of July. The 08 contract has partially repaired the expected difference, and the market is still searching for the peak [1][5]. - The supply and demand of the US route increased simultaneously in the early stage, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates from the US East and West coasts have declined from their highs but are showing signs of stabilization [3]. - Since the current freight rate is likely to be searching for the peak, the off - season EC2410 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [6]. - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract and a long - December and short - October spread strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 87,953 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 96,679 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1341.50, 1187.80, 1322.10, 1904.90, 1383.80, and 1538.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for week 29 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes for the first half of July, the second half of July, and the first half of August are 2035/3235, 2235/3535, and 2235/3535 respectively. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes [2]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27 was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 2578.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1 was 2123.24 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In the early stage of the US route, the supply and demand increased simultaneously, and the carriers actively restored capacity in June and July. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the US East and West coasts was 350,000 TEU in June, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August [3]. - The monthly average weekly capacity from Shanghai to European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 blank sailings in August (both by the OA Alliance). The capacity in July decreased compared to the previous week's statistics mainly because the MSC (ALBATROS) route skipped Shanghai from week 28 to week 31, with the previously allocated ship capacity being about 15,000 TEU [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors include Iran's indecision on whether to hold nuclear negotiations with the US and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with US President Trump at the White House on July 7 [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis in the provided text other than the above - mentioned freight rate and capacity information which is also affected by demand and economic factors.