聚烯烃日报：需求淡季，下游刚需采购-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bearish stance on plastics for unilateral trading, with no specific strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - It is the off - season for downstream demand, with limited boosting effects. The agricultural film industry has low operating rates, and other end - user industries are running weakly. Upstream inventory is being depleted, while inventory reduction in the mid - stream trading sector is slow. International oil and propane prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. Some previously shut - down and overhauled plants have resumed operation, and new supply has slightly increased. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional overhaul season, and future intensive overhauls of existing plants will relieve some of the new supply pressure [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7249 yuan/ton (- 12), and that of the PP main contract is 7044 yuan/ton (- 26). The LL North China spot price is 7190 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (- 50), and the PP East China spot price is 7120 yuan/ton (- 40). The LL North China basis is - 59 yuan/ton (- 38), the LL East China basis is 51 yuan/ton (- 38), and the PP East China basis is 76 yuan/ton (- 14) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 378.7 yuan/ton (+ 19.9), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.3 yuan/ton (+ 19.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 274.9 yuan/ton (+ 6.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data summary is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 48.2 yuan/ton (+ 10.1), the PP import profit is - 496.8 yuan/ton (- 182.2), and the PP export profit is 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory is being depleted, while inventory reduction in the mid - stream trading sector is slow. No specific inventory data is provided [2]