燃料油日报：伊拉克高硫燃料油出口量维持高位-20250702

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the logic dominated by fundamentals after the decline of the crude oil premium due to the easing of the Middle - East situation [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but the market structure will find new support after full adjustment [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure and lacks a continuous upward - driving force [2] Group 3: Market Analysis High - sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.37% at 2979 yuan/ton [1] - The spread structure has weakened, indicating sufficient supply and lack of positive drivers [1] - OPEC's production increase and Iran's potential export recovery will boost supply [1] - Iraq's high - sulfur fuel oil exports are at a high level, with an expected shipment of 167 tons in June, up 32 tons from May and 70 tons from last year [1] - Summer power - generation demand is strong, shipping consumption is stable, and refinery demand may increase with the adjustment of cracking spread and tax - deduction ratio [1] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.03% at 3590 yuan/ton [1] - Short - term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable due to European refinery conversion and low Western arbitrage cargo supply [2] - Singapore's bunker sales increased in May, supporting the market [2] - In the medium term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will replace its market share, and domestic production may rise after the refinery maintenance season [2] Group 4: Strategy - High - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: Short the FU cracking spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3] - Cross - period: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]