市场成交稳定，盘面分化

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The latest US PMI and JOLTS job openings showed better-than-expected performance, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations and mixed closing of the three major US stock indexes. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line, with significant improvements in new orders and production indexes. After the market rally, there is a divergence, which is expected to continue, and large-cap stocks may have a phased catch-up in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Manufacturing industry: In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. The new orders index rebounded slightly above the critical point, and the production index returned to the expansion range, reaching a seven-month high. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, higher than the expected 48.8 but still in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Job openings in May increased from 7.4 million in April to 7.769 million, far exceeding the economists' expectation of 7.3 million [1]. - Index performance: In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%. Most sector indexes rose, with the comprehensive, pharmaceutical and biological, banking, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the gains, and the computer, commercial retail, and communication industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.5 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, Trump said that he would not consider extending the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations, might not reach an agreement with Japan before July 9, and Japan might face a 30% or 35% tariff. There were two or three candidates for the Fed chair. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.91% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing down [1]. - Futures market: The basis discount of stock index futures deepened again. In terms of trading volume and open interest, only the trading volume and open interest of IM increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy - The latest US PMI and JOLTS job openings showed better-than-expected performance, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations and mixed closing of the three major US stock indexes. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line, with significant improvements in new orders and production indexes. After the market rally, there is a divergence, which is expected to continue, and large-cap stocks may have a phased catch-up in the short term [3]. Chart Summary Macro Economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][7]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 1, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index (+0.39%), Shenzhen Component Index (+0.11%), ChiNext Index (-0.24%), CSI 300 Index (+0.17%), SSE 50 Index (+0.16%), CSI 500 Index (+0.33%), and CSI 1000 Index (+0.28%) [12]. - Also include charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. Only the trading volume and open interest of IM increased, while those of IF, IH, and IC decreased [17]. - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures (futures - spot), with the basis discount of all contracts deepening [38]. - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, with various spreads showing different changes [43]. - Include charts on the open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net open interest of different stock index futures contracts [6].