PX：投产真空期下的估值修复

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the central value restoration of PXN from the perspective of the domestic PX capacity gap. After nearly two years of production suspension, the PX capacity gap is approaching the level of 2014 - 2018, and it maintains a de - stocking pattern even at high operating rates. The theoretical potential for the valuation center to recover to the average level of 2014 - 2017, around $350 per ton, should occur before the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Capacity Cycle Comparison - After continuous large - scale production expansions, the domestic PX production has entered a two - year vacuum period. In 2025, whether Yulong Petrochemical is put into production or not, the domestic PX capacity gap will widen. Assuming full PTA capacity is put into production, if Yulong Petrochemical is commissioned, the capacity gap will reach 15.37 million tons, similar to the 15.79 million tons in 2018; if not, it will reach 18.37 million tons, the largest in history. The capacity gap calculated from the polyester end is much smaller than that in 2018, mainly due to the over - capacity of PTA and its export to meet downstream demand. The effectiveness of the capacity gap indirectly corresponding to polyester is not strong [4]. 2. Operating Rate Comparison - As of the end of June 2025, the domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 83.8%, and the Asian capacity utilization rate is around 73%. In the same period of 2018, the domestic capacity utilization rate was lower, hovering around 75% throughout the year, but the Asian overall capacity utilization rate was higher, reaching 80 - 85% outside the maintenance season. In 2018, the average capacity utilization rate was the highest among the years with a large PX capacity gap from 2014 - 2018. The import dependence in 2018 was 60%, while in 2025 it is only 20%. Therefore, the domestic operating rates in 2018 and 2025 cannot be compared independently. In 2018, more attention should be paid to the Asian overall operating rate, and in 2025, more attention should be paid to the domestic operating rate. Currently, the room for China to increase the device load is limited. If the PX operating rate approaches 90% and it is still de - stocking, and the Asian device load approaches 80% or cannot be further increased, there is a possibility of a sharp price increase due to shortages [7][11]. 3. Downstream Comparison - In 2018, against the background of three - year suspension of PTA and PX production, the capacity gap widened. Polyester production expanded significantly, and the operating rate reached a record high due to export rush, leading to significant de - stocking of upstream PTA and PX and triggering the 2018 PTA market. Currently, the export rush stage has passed, and the textile and clothing industry still faces great pressure. Although the polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are small, the operating rate is unlikely to increase further. The bottle chip sector is gradually reducing production due to inventory and profit pressure. Overall, the polyester sector is less prosperous than in 2018. Currently, PTA inventory has dropped to a low level after five months of de - stocking, and the processing fee is neutral, so the probability of unplanned maintenance in the short term is low. The overall operating rate is similar to that in 2018, but it is gradually entering a stocking cycle, and the PTA processing fee is difficult to expand as in 2018. The main driving force for valuation restoration comes from PXN [22]. 4. Valuation Restoration from the Perspective of Capacity Gap - From the perspective of the capacity cycle, from 2014 - 2017, the domestic PX capacity gap was around 16 million tons, and the PXN center was stable between $350 - 400 per ton. In 2018, due to the export rush, the raw material end de - stocked, and the valuation increased significantly. As the capacity gap narrowed later, the average annual PXN dropped rapidly to around $200 per ton, only increasing in 2022 - 2023 due to aromatics blending for oil. After 2024, the premium of aromatics blending for oil was reversed. Due to the two - year PX production suspension, the upstream - downstream production was mismatched, the capacity gap widened, and the inventory decreased even at a high operating rate. In the medium term, theoretically, PXN should recover to around $350 per ton. However, the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical may suppress the restoration process and directly lead to inventory accumulation in the later balance sheet. Therefore, the best window period for valuation restoration is before the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical [36].