新能源及有色金属日报：绝对价格下滑现货市场并未明显好转-20250702

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined significantly, and the spot market premium has not improved significantly. The supply is relatively abundant, and the zinc price is weak despite the new low of the US dollar index. The supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. The deviation between the macro - positive and the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [3] Summary by Related Content Spot and Futures Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$18.75 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, and its spot premium rose by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 240 yuan/ton to 22,250 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [1] - On July 1, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,255 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 178,683 lots, an increase of 17,759 lots, and the position was 134,433 lots, a decrease of 5,753 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,105 - 22,420 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The supply in June increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July is still as high as 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly. The alloy operating rate has started to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur [3] - The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, and the smelting enthusiasm has been further enhanced, so the supply pressure remains [3] - After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined [3]