海外札记20250630：风险事件预计进入频发窗口，但市场走强趋势未必逆转

Group 1: Market Trends - The current market is expected to continue its upward trend despite the anticipated increase in risk events[6] - Global market risk assessments have been declining since April, contributing to market strength, with major indices approaching previous highs[10] - The market's recent performance is driven by a shift in Trump's policies, prioritizing Wall Street interests over long-term reforms[11] Group 2: Risk Factors - There is an increasing concern about several concentrated risk events, including the "Big Beautiful Act" and tariff negotiations, which could impact market liquidity[15] - The potential economic consequences of tariffs are beginning to manifest, leading to weaker economic growth and inflation concerns[19] - The probability and impact of these risks may be overestimated, suggesting that current pricing may already reflect these expectations[27] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Q1 GDP growth rate was revised down to -0.5%, indicating economic contraction driven by weak consumer spending and net exports[36] - Unemployment claims have risen to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, signaling a weakening job market[37] - Inflation risks may be overstated, and if proven false, market confidence in potential Fed rate cuts could strengthen[25] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The market's momentum relies on declining risk-free rates, decreasing risk assessments, and rising risk appetite[27] - Non-U.S. assets are expected to perform better in a weak dollar environment, with significant relative performance advantages over U.S. markets[27] - The current environment is favorable for non-U.S. markets, with equity risk premiums (ERP) in major non-U.S. markets significantly higher than in the U.S.[28]