【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕6月产量环比上月同期减少0.65%美国大豆5月压榨量为611.0万短吨-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and potential arbitrage opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. It covers key commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as major currencies and shipping freight rates. [1][2][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - Futures Prices: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are reported, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 09 (BMD) is 3990.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.43% and an overnight increase of 0.50%. [1] - Currency Exchange Rates: The latest exchange rates and their changes are provided for major currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and others. For instance, the US dollar index is at 96.63, down 0.14%. [1] Spot Market Conditions - Futures - Spot Price Relationship: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 8590, with a basis of 300 and a basis change of 50. [2] - Imported Soybean Quotes: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins (US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina) are given. Brazil's CNF quote is 463 dollars/ton with a premium of 232 cents/bushel. [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - US Soybean Main - Producing States: The future weather outlook (July 6 - 10) for US soybean main - producing states shows that both precipitation and temperature are above normal levels in most states. The Midwest also has local showers and high temperatures in the coming week, with overall favorable but varied weather conditions. [4][6] 国际供需 - Palm Oil: In June 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.65% compared to the same period last month according to SPPOMA. In May, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 53% year - on - year, and the export value soared by nearly 71% to 1.85 billion dollars. [8][9] - Soybeans: The US soybean crushing volume in May 2025 was 6.11 million tons. The crushing profit in the week ending June 27 decreased by 8%. StoneX raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 168.75 million tons. [9][10] - Other: Argentina's agricultural exports in June increased by 87% year - on - year. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed showed different trends in the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year. [11] 国内供需 - Trading Volume: On July 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 4100 tons, up 413% from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 49,300 tons. [14] - Inventory: As of July 1, the national soybean oil port inventory was 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from the previous week. [14] - Agricultural Product Prices: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly on July 1. The prices of pork, beef, mutton, eggs, and white - striped chickens also declined. [14] Macro - economic News 国际要闻 - Interest Rate Expectations: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 78.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 21.2%. [16] - Economic Data: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.9. The number of job openings in May was 7.769 million. [16] - Policy and Trade: Trump is willing to postpone the deadline for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, and the Senate passed it. US officials are seeking to narrow the scope of the trade agreement, with a deadline of July 9. [16] - Central Bank Speeches: At the European Central Bank Forum, central bank governors from the US, Europe, the UK, Japan, and South Korea expressed their views on monetary policy. [17] - Inflation Data: The eurozone's CPI monthly rate in June was 0.3%, and the annual rate was 2%. [18] 国内要闻 - Exchange Rate: On July 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1534, down 52 points. [20] - Monetary Policy: The Chinese central bank conducted 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 1, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan. [20] - Economic Data: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. [20] Capital Flows - Futures Market: On July 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 6.836 billion yuan, including 6.238 billion yuan in the commodity futures market and 598 million yuan in the stock index futures market. [23] - Major Commodities: The capital flows of various futures products are detailed, with positive inflows in products like CSI 1000 stock index futures, gold, and copper, and negative outflows in products such as CSI 300 stock index futures, crude oil, and iron ore. [22] Arbitrage Tracking - Arbitrage Opportunities: Potential arbitrage opportunities in oilseeds and related products are presented, including price differences and ratios between different contracts such as P 2509 - 2601, RM 2509 - 2601, etc. [25]