Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The 10-year Treasury YTM central level in July 2025 is predicted to decline, lower than the 1.65% central level in June [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Model Prediction Update - The 10-year Treasury interest rate monthly timing model predicts that the 10-year Treasury YTM central level in July 2025 will decline, lower than the 1.65% central level in June [4]. 3.2 Model Prediction Basic Idea - Factor selection includes economic growth, price changes, capital market, market status, and seasonality [5]. - For historical comparison, select several historical periods with high similarity to the T-period based on characteristic factors of the T-period [5]. - For market prediction, use the next period of the historical period with high similarity to the current stage as the prediction result for the T+1 period [5]. - The prediction target is the change direction of the monthly central level of the 10-year Treasury yield [5].
月度择时模型：7月10年国债利率中枢或下行-20250702
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-02 06:23