金属行业中期投资策略：供给收缩需求稳增，逆全球化下金属价值重估

Core Views - Industrial metals are experiencing high apparent demand growth, with copper and aluminum showing over 5% growth in the first half of the year, driven by electricity, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while real estate and export demand are declining [5][11] - The supply side remains orderly and controllable, leading to a continuous upward shift in price levels, with current inventories at historical lows and significant risks of short squeezes [5][11] - Mining companies are seeing increasing profits, and valuations remain low despite the market's divergence [5][11] Industrial Metals Analysis - The apparent demand for copper and aluminum is growing, with a 5% increase in demand in the first half of the year, driven by sectors like electricity and new energy vehicles, while real estate and export demand are declining [11] - The geopolitical factors and global supply-demand imbalance have led to historically low inventories, creating a risk of price spikes [11] - The report suggests that mining companies are benefiting from rising profits and low valuations, with a favorable outlook as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [5][12] Precious Metals Outlook - Gold prices have reached new highs and are expected to remain strong throughout the year, influenced by rising recession expectations in the U.S. and concerns over dollar credibility [6] - The report anticipates that geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures will continue to drive demand for gold, with central banks increasing their gold reserves [6] Energy Metals Insights - Lithium prices are currently at a low point, with a potential for a prolonged bottoming phase, while cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Nickel prices are projected to find support at around $15,000 per ton due to cost pressures from Indonesian nickel supply [7] Minor Metals and Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten, with prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand [9] - Uranium demand is projected to increase significantly as nuclear power generation expands, with supply remaining tight [9] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a selection of companies in the metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities [9]