集运日报：部分主要港口拥堵，船司7月下旬有意提高价格中枢，空单可考虑全部止盈，符合日报预期，建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250702

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to port congestion and shipping companies' intention to raise price centers in late July, short positions can consider full profit - taking. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][3]. - The overall supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, but the SCFIS has continued to rise. The market should pay attention to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May and higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7 and higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53 and higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategy - On July 1, the main contract 2508 closed at 1904.9, up 7.80%, with a trading volume of 68,800 lots and an open interest of 40,500 lots, an increase of 1248 lots from the previous day [3]. - Short - term strategy: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points). Short positions can consider taking profits. For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 and set stop - losses and take - profits [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%; the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%; the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. 3.4 Geopolitical Events - According to the Associated Press on June 29, US President Trump said he had no intention of extending the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions beyond July 9. Once the negotiation period expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [5]. - On June 30, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the Egyptian Foreign Minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with the Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency [5].