日度策略参考-20250702

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Aluminum, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Nickel, Copper, Zinc [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shandong Gasoline, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, PVC, LPG [1] - Neutral or Sideways: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Benzene, Styrene, Chlor - Alkali, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the gold price has stabilized and rebounded. The macro and commodity attributes may still support the silver price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] - The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong aluminum price. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices [1] - The supply - side impact of some metal - related events is limited, and metal prices are affected by macro - sentiment and related metal price movements [1] - For agricultural products, factors such as production forecasts, policy changes, and price differentials affect market trends. For example, Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and domestic corn and soybean meal have different outlooks [1] - In the energy and chemical sectors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors influence prices. For instance, the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ actions affect oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock Index: In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - Treasury Bonds: Currently in a period of asset - liability and weak economy, but the central bank's recent interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1] - Gold: The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the price has stabilized and rebounded [1] - Silver: The macro and commodity attributes may still support the price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Recently, the market risk appetite has recovered, and the short - term price is strong due to the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper [1] - Aluminum: The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong price [1] - Alumina: The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices, and it is short - term strong [1] - Zinc: Affected by news, it fell in the short term, but rebounded with the sharp rise in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - Nickel: After the improvement in commodity sentiment, the price rebounded from the short - term bottom, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - Stainless Steel: The spot trading has improved periodically, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Short - term operation is recommended [1] - Tin: The supply of mines is difficult to recover in the short term, and the price rebounded with the improvement of macro - sentiment [1] Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: There are short - term factory production restrictions. Temporarily wait and see [1] - Iron Ore: Short - term production has increased slightly, demand is weakening, supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: Focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures are at a premium [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: According to Malay high - frequency data, it is likely to accumulate inventory in June, which is bearish [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Before the anti - dumping investigation result of Canadian rapeseed is announced, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Cotton: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums; in the long term, macro - uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the long - term production may be affected by the crude oil price [1] - Corn: The short - term is affected by import and auction news, and the C09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly later [1] - Soybean Meal: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: The Middle East situation has cooled, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1] - Shandong Gasoline: Affected by cost and demand factors, it is bearish [1] - Natural Rubber and BR Rubber: The downstream demand is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is bearish [1] - PTA and Ethylene Glycol: The market is affected by factors such as device maintenance, supply - demand, and cost [1] - PVC and Chlor - Alkali: After the end of maintenance, new devices are put into production, and the supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - LPG: The 7 - month CP price has been lowered, and the short - term price has a downward space [1] Shipping - Container Shipping on the European Route: The freight rate is expected to peak in mid - July, and the subsequent capacity deployment is sufficient [1]