Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the second half of the year, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand. The raw material issue remains a crucial factor influencing lead price trends. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to raw material - end changes and macro - policy guidance [2][98][99] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review: Long "N" Trend - In Q1, driven by macro - sentiment and tight raw materials, the lead price center shifted upwards. In January, due to environmental protection restrictions and weak demand, the lead market was in a state of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, the lead price rose but faced resistance due to low downstream acceptance. In March, with the recovery of supply and positive policies, the lead price fluctuated upwards [8] - In Q2, affected by tariff disturbances, the lead price was low at first and then high. In late March, due to supply - side factors and concerns about the off - season, the lead price declined. In early April, trade frictions caused the lead price to drop. Later, the lead price traded within a narrow range due to the contradiction between tight raw materials and weak demand. In mid - to late June, the lead price broke through the 17,000 yuan/ton mark [9] - As of June 30, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the end of last year and down 11.49% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the end of last year and down 11.88% from the same period last year. As of June 27, the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the end of last year and down 11.91% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.61% from the end of last year and down 8.10% from the same period last year [10] 2. Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support (1) Primary Lead: Tight Lead Concentrate Supply with No Improvement in TC - As of June 27, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the end of last year and down 11.32% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,597.68 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the end of last year and down 2.58% from the same period last year [22] - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% (+48,600 tons). In China, domestic mines mainly resumed production with obvious increments. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese lead concentrate was 633,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.61% (+71,000 tons) [28] - For imported ores, overseas mine production was lower than expected, and the import supplement was relatively limited. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of lead concentrate was 552,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.05% (+134,100 tons). The main sources of imported goods were Russia (29%), Peru (9%), Australia (9%), the United States (7%), and Turkey (5%) [29] - As of the end of May, the raw material inventory of primary lead smelters was 389,300 tons, with raw material days of about 25 days, at a relatively high level. As of June 20, the primary lead smelting profit (processing) turned positive to 29.4 yuan/ton [41][42] (2) Recycled Lead: Limited Supply and Rising Scrap Battery Prices - At the beginning of the year, the scrap battery price was stable, and the recycled lead profit was acceptable. Since mid - March, with the increase in smelter production and the arrival of the scrap battery off - season, the scrap battery price was prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the recycled lead profit declined significantly [48] - As of June 30, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 3.01% from the end of last year and down 11.80% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,279 yuan/ton, up 4.20% from the end of last year and down 8.39% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,506 yuan/ton, up 4.30% from the end of last year and down 8.58% from the same period last year [48] 3. Supply Side: One Increase and One Decrease (1) Primary Lead: Rising Production - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.08% (+89,300 tons). From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese refined lead was 1.5651 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42% (+121,500 tons) [64] (2) Recycled Lead: Volatile Production - Affected by raw materials and environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead enterprises fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese recycled lead was 1.347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.61% (-22,100 tons) [70] 4. Demand Side: Off - Season Conditions (1) Slow Downstream Purchasing in the Off - Season - In the first half of the year, with subsidy policies such as trade - in, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was acceptable. In the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, the demand weakened, but policies and "rush - to - export" under tariff disturbances alleviated some concerns [76] - Many provinces and cities have introduced electric bicycle trade - in policies, which have a positive impact on the demand for lead - acid batteries [79][80][83] (2) Continuous Closure of Export Windows - As of June 27, the profit of exporting lead ingots to Taiwan was - 2,392.94 yuan/ton, and the profit of exporting to Southeast Asia was - 2,464.55 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of lead ingots was 20,753 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.53% (+6,294 tons). The cumulative export volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries was 94.2984 million units, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.24% (-3.1552 million units) [84] 5. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - The lead ingot inventory fluctuated and increased. As of June 30, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,300 tons, up 6.03% from the end of last year and down 9.05% from the same period last year [86][87] 6. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the second half of the year, the macro - environment is favorable. The raw material remains a key factor in determining the lead price. The production of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the production of recycled lead is uncertain. The demand is expected to improve steadily [98] - Overall, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead， price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [99]
半年度策略报告：原料不确定性较强，下方支撑稳固-20250702
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-02 07:05