Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][5][7] Core Viewpoints - The oil price fluctuates to find a direction under the background of OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes, and is expected to continue the oscillating rhythm in the short term [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies; the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the internal and external price difference is expected to remain low [2] - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [2] - The polyester products are affected by device conditions and downstream demand, and the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - The rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the balance of supply and demand [3][5] - The methanol price is expected to oscillate as the import volume may increase and the MTO profit is compressed [5] - The polyolefin supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - The PVC price is expected to continue oscillating due to the off - season demand and the change of basis and monthly spread structure [5][7] Summary by Directory Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the oil price center moved slightly higher. OPEC+ is expected to announce an 8 - month daily production increase of 411,000 barrels on July 6. Trump's trade remarks and inventory data affect the oil price, which is expected to oscillate [1] - Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures prices fell on Tuesday. The inventory of imported raw material oil in Shandong decreased year - on - year. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger, and the price may rebound briefly, while the low - sulfur supply is sufficient [2] - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price rose on Tuesday. The July production is expected to increase. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north [2] - Polyester: The prices of TA, EG, and PX fluctuated on Tuesday. The MEG and PTA devices are affected, and the downstream demand is weak, so the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - Rubber: The rubber futures prices rose on Tuesday. The heavy - truck sales increased in June, but the raw material price decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [3][5] - Methanol: The methanol spot prices are given. With the recovery of Iranian devices, the import volume may increase, and the MTO profit compression may lead to device maintenance, so the price is expected to oscillate [5] - Polyolefins: The prices and profits of polyolefins are provided. The supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. With the off - season demand, the price is expected to continue oscillating [5][7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical commodities on July 2, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc [8] Market News - Investors are concerned about the trade negotiations before the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump. The US Treasury Secretary warns that tariffs may be raised significantly [10] - The US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by about 700,000 barrels last week, and there were also changes in other inventory data [10] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various commodities from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc [12][13][14][16][19][22][23][25] - Main Contract Basis: The basis charts of main contracts of various commodities are provided, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [27][29][33][36][39][40] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [42][44][47][50][51][55][57][58] - Inter - commodity Spreads: The spread and ratio charts between different commodities are presented, including crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [59][61][65][66] - Production Profits: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc are shown [68][70] Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience and many awards [72] - Du Bingqin: An analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with professional background and achievements [73] - Di Yilin: An analyst of natural rubber and polyester, with awards and media exposure [74] - Peng Haibo: An analyst of methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with relevant academic and practical experience [75] Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [77]
光大期货能化商品日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 07:17