碳酸锂日报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 62,780 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 59,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 57,720 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 312 tons to 22,940 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate production increased 305 tons to 18,767 tons, with a relatively obvious increase from mica. In June, the lithium carbonate production increased over 9% month - on - month. On the demand side, according to third - party production scheduling data, the production of lithium iron phosphate in July is expected to increase 3% month - on - month, and the production of ternary materials is expected to increase 1.3% month - on - month. The weekly inventory turnover days have all increased, with a relatively obvious increase in lithium iron phosphate. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased 1,936 tons to 136,837 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 269 tons to 40,635 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing 1,260 tons to 37,170 tons, and upstream inventory increasing 407 tons to 59,032 tons [3]. - Last week, the lithium ore transaction price increased slightly. Lithium salt plants announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological upgrades, and there were many disturbances in the market news. However, the current price faces certain hedging pressure, and there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end. In the short term, it may still fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 62,780 yuan/ton on July 1, 2025, up 520 yuan from June 30; the closing price of the continuous contract was 62,980 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 625 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 720 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,255 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 61,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 59,700 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 57,720 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,070 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained at 8.1 US dollars/kg [5]. - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. Among the prices of precursors and cathode materials, most remained unchanged, with only the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) up 20 yuan/ton to 71,310 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) down 20 yuan/ton to 142,530 yuan/ton. The price of most lithium batteries remained unchanged, with only the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries down 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.299 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Price: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Price: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Price Difference: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursor & Cathode Material: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium Battery Price: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - Inventory: Charts present the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to June 2025 [35][37]. - Production Cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [44].