Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [3] Core Viewpoints - Among the four main monetization methods, e-commerce is currently considered the best due to the shift of user attention from offline to online in the mobile internet era, leading to the accumulation of a large user base and the exploration of various monetization models [11][12] - Advertising growth is constrained by loading rates, prompting content platforms to shift towards e-commerce. The scale of advertising revenue is limited by user numbers, usage duration, and loading rates, leading platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou to expand their e-commerce operations since 2018, with Douyin's e-commerce GMV expected to reach approximately 3.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 30% year-on-year increase [12][25] - Brands are leaning towards direct conversion to transactions in a weak macroeconomic environment, making e-commerce performance relatively more stable. The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 is projected to be 48.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [2][26] - AI is expected to shorten the transaction chain, benefiting e-commerce due to its strong infrastructure, which is likely to reshape its value in the market [8][49] Summary by Sections 1. E-commerce as the Best Monetization Method - The shift of user attention to online platforms has led to the emergence of four main monetization models: e-commerce, advertising, gaming, and live streaming [11] - Advertising growth is limited by user engagement metrics, leading to a natural ceiling for revenue growth [12] - E-commerce platforms are enhancing their content ecosystems to improve transaction efficiency and close sales loops [2][34] 2. Investment Recommendations - E-commerce is seen as more directly linked to transaction outcomes, making it more resilient in a weak macroeconomic environment compared to other monetization models [49] - The report suggests focusing on leading e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou, as well as ecosystem partners like ZhiDeMai [50]
传媒行业分析:四种主要变现方式中,当下,我们认为电商最好