Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - On July 1, polysilicon fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The main contract 2508 closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.39%. The position decreased by 5,137 lots to 61,196 lots. The price of SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material dropped to 34,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material also dropped to 34,500 yuan/ton. The premium of the spot over the main contract widened to 1,800 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fluctuated with a downward trend. The main contract 2509 closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 4.31%. The position increased by 5,325 lots to 361,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot remained stable at 8,738 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 changed from a discount to a premium of 165 yuan/ton over the futures. The news of production cuts by large industrial silicon manufacturers in Xinjiang has been gradually digested by the market. After a rebound, both silicon products started to correct synchronously. Trump's tax policy targeting the new energy sector has affected the market. Due to the previous oversold situation of polysilicon, its recent futures performance has been slightly stronger than that of industrial silicon. In reality, the pace of industrial silicon warehouse receipts flowing back to the market has slowed down, and high-quality polysilicon warehouse receipts still need a significant price decline to relieve pressure. With high inventory levels, silicon prices are more likely to fall than to rise. Continuous monitoring of the price ratio between the two silicon products and news related to policies and industry capacity regulation is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 280 yuan/ton. Among various spot prices, the price of some grades remained stable, while the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use in Kunming) decreased by 150 yuan/ton, and the prices of some grades in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 336, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 19,735 tons, the inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 3,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 11,000 tons, the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 2,000 tons, and the industrial silicon factory warehouse inventory decreased by 54,860 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 70,860 tons [3] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 835 yuan/ton and 535 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N - type polysilicon material, dense material/single - crystal use, and cauliflower material/single - crystal use remained stable. The premium of the spot over the futures widened by 835 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory was 78,000 tons, the factory warehouse inventory increased by 4,000 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,000 tons [3] - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [3] - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [3] 2. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][16][18] - Inventory: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24] - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [27][29][33]
光大期货工业硅日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 07:59