信用周报：超长期限暂时降温-20250702

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: July 2, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Li Shukai 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The ultra-long-term credit bond market cooled down in the last week of June after two consecutive weeks of heating up, but it is only a temporary adjustment without signs of a market reversal. - In the short term, one can be more optimistic about the opportunities to participate in ultra-long-term credit bonds, especially considering the potential incremental space from the expansion of bond ETF products, which may improve the liquidity of ultra-long-term bonds. - However, the thin coupon protection makes them less resistant to fluctuations, and the vulnerability of the liability side of public fund products should not be ignored. A strategy of quick entry and exit and staying ahead of the news may be a good choice [5][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ultra-long Term Temporarily Cools Down - Market Performance in the Last Week of June: The bond market entered a consolidation phase, with interest rates first weakening and then strengthening. Credit bonds performed worse than interest rate bonds, with larger declines. Affected by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, the short - and medium - term yields of interest rate bonds fluctuated downward, while the long - and ultra - long - term yields adjusted. Credit bonds had different trends from interest rate bonds, with relatively larger adjustment amplitudes [3][10]. - Performance of Ultra-long-term Credit Bonds: After two consecutive weeks of rising, ultra-long-term credit bonds adjusted, with the adjustment amplitude even exceeding that of the same - term interest rate bonds. The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes increased by 2.5BP and decreased by 1.5BP respectively, and the yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 3.7BP and 1.7BP respectively, while the 10Y treasury bond yield only increased by 0.7BP [3][10]. - Curve Morphology: The steepness of the 1 - 2 year for medium - and high - grade bonds and the 2 - 5 year for low - grade bonds was the highest, but overall it was slightly lower than at the end of May, and the short - end remained flat [12]. - Absolute Yield and Credit Spread: The coupon value remains low. In terms of credit spreads, there may be opportunities around the 3 - year mark. After a week of adjustment, the short - term 1 - year still lacks cost - effectiveness, while the protection of the 3 - year has strengthened [14]. - Performance of Perpetual and Tier 2 Bonds: The market of perpetual and tier 2 bonds weakened. The decline of those within 5 years was similar to that of the same - term general credit bonds, and the performance of those over 7 years was comparable to that of ultra-long - term credit bonds. The yield of 4 - 10 year AAA - bank tier 2 capital bonds increased by 1.98BP, 0.36BP, 1.38BP, 4.01BP, 3.69BP, 3.85BP, and 2.62BP respectively [4][16]. - Active Trading of Perpetual and Tier 2 Bonds: The trading sentiment fluctuated throughout the week, being poor on Tuesday and Wednesday and better on the other days. The proportion of low - valuation transactions and the average trading duration also fluctuated. The trading amplitude of low - valuation and discount transactions was small [18][19][21]. - Selling and Buying Intentions of Ultra-long-term Credit Bonds: Institutions' selling intention increased compared with the previous week, but the discount amplitude was mostly within 3BP, not an urgent selling situation. The market's buying intention was not weak, with about 43% of the low - valuation transactions having an amplitude of 4BP or more, indicating the existence of allocation demand [5][22][24].