多行业联合红利资产6月报：基于宏观周期的红利轮动模型-20250702

Strategy - The report constructs a macroeconomic state-based dividend rotation portfolio, achieving an annualized return of 15%. The rotation focuses on four categories: cyclical, consumer, stable, and manufacturing dividends, using indicators such as M1 year-on-year growth, PPI index, and 10Y government bond yield to define macro states [15][35][39]. Financial Sector - In June, the banking sector rose by 5.37%, with valuations continuing to recover. The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and quality regional banks, highlighting the long-term investment value of major banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [13][39]. Transportation and Utilities - H-shares outperformed A-shares, emphasizing investment opportunities in Hong Kong dividend assets. Recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Anhui Expressway for highways, and China Merchants Port for ports, which are expected to benefit from long-term value and dividend increases [13][39]. Energy and Chemicals - With the arrival of the driving season in Europe and the US, the report highlights investment opportunities in the energy sector. It recommends focusing on major oil and gas companies like China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical, as well as coal companies like China Shenhua Energy [13][39]. Food and Beverage - The sector is entering a performance verification period, with a focus on improving dividend quality. Recommendations include leading liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as dairy companies like Yili [13][39]. Home Appliances - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in leading companies within the home appliance sector, particularly those benefiting from government policies and improving domestic sales. Key recommendations include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [13][39]. Real Estate - With a decline in residential property sales, the report suggests focusing on commercial real estate. Recommended companies include Swire Properties and China Resources Land, which are expected to maintain stable cash flows and dividends [13][39]. Publishing - The education publishing sector is highlighted for its stability and potential for high dividends. Recommendations include Southern Publishing and Media Group, which is expected to maintain strong performance and dividend payouts [13][39]. Selected Dividend Assets - The report identifies a selection of stable and quality dividend assets, including Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Sichuan Chengyu, Kweichow Moutai, and Gree Electric Appliances, among others [12][39].