需求复苏乏力，供应压力犹存

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the price center of the black - series products moved down, with significant differentiation in the supply - demand structure and price strength of various varieties. In the second half of the year, the steel market environment remains complex and volatile, facing risks such as supply - demand pressure and cost decline [2]. - The real demand of finished products is stronger than expected. The export maintains a high growth rate, and the domestic demand structure is significantly differentiated. The building material demand continues to decline, while the strip demand is significantly stronger [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - Raw Materials: Iron ore prices had limited downward drive due to high hot - metal demand, with the Platts Index down 8% cumulatively. Scrap steel prices had less pressure, with a 4% cumulative decline in the first half. Coking coal and coke were the weakest, with coking coal down over 30% and coke down about 27% [2][6]. - Finished Products: From January to May 2025, crude steel consumption was 374 million tons, down 1.2% year - on - year. The output of finished products remained high, and the steel mills' profitability was stable. Exports maintained a high growth rate, and domestic demand was differentiated. Building material demand declined, while strip demand was strong. The cumulative decline of rebar was 9%, and that of hot - rolled coil was 6% [2][6]. 3.2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - Macro: In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience, with a Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% and an expected H1 growth of about 5.3%. Fiscal policy was proactive, and monetary policy was flexible. However, the economy also faced challenges such as a complex external environment and real - estate market adjustments [19]. - Steel Demand Analysis - Real Estate: From January to May 2025, real - estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year. Construction and new - start areas declined, and sales showed signs of stabilization. The demand for steel in the real - estate sector will continue to be weak [20][23]. - Infrastructure: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year. However, factors such as debt - repayment pressure and consumption - intensity decline may restrict the demand for steel in infrastructure [31]. - Manufacturing Investment: From January to May 2025, manufacturing investment showed rapid growth and structural optimization, supported by industrial upgrading, export - structure optimization, and domestic - demand policies [40]. - Exports: From January to May 2025, steel exports remained at a high level, with cumulative steel exports of 48.48 million tons, up 8.6% year - on - year, and steel billet exports of 4.72 million tons, up 307% year - on - year. In the second half of 2025, the export volume may decline by 8 - 10 million tons [45]. - Supply Analysis: From January to May 2025, pig - iron production was 363 million tons, down 0.1% year - on - year, and crude - steel production was 432 million tons, down 1.7% year - on - year. To meet the energy - saving target, the crude - steel output in 2025 should not exceed 983 million tons. The iron - water output decline may be slightly stronger than that of crude steel, and the pattern of strong strips and weak building materials will continue [51][54]. 3.3. Crude - Steel Balance Sheet Deduction and Conclusion In the second half of 2025, the steel market environment is still complex. In the off - season, the supply - demand contradiction of finished products has not effectively accumulated, and the basis has weakened. The cost side may decline, and risks of supply - demand pressure and cost decline should be watched out for in the middle and late third quarter [66].