Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 09:34Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to converge, and basis convergence trading may continue. Short - term low - buying of soda ash is recommended, while for the medium - to long - term, short - selling the main contract on rallies is advised [2]. - For glass, supply shows a slight decline and remains at a low level with obvious signs of production for rigid demand. Industry profits are poor and continue to decline, and the resumption of production may further slow down. Demand is expected to weaken further. The basis remains in a normal range, and the subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and medium - to long - term short - selling on rallies is still the suggested strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,205 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,052 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [2]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is 153 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,470,453 lots, down 180,882 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,502,078 lots, down 120,680 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 279,455 lots, up 28,480 lots; glass top 20 net position is - 205,464 lots, up 145,295 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3,679 tons, down 34 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 802 tons, down 55 tons [2]. - The price difference between September and January contracts of soda ash is - 20 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price difference between September and January contracts of glass is - 87 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 15 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; glass basis is 4 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,175 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, up 0.14 million tons; the number of glass in - production lines is 222, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7688 million tons, up 0.0019 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.216 million weight cases, down 0.671 million weight cases [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission guides capacity reduction, which affects soda ash and glass prices [2]. - The Caixin China PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May, back above the critical point [2].