瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Corn: The output prospect of international corn is good due to increased planting area and good initial growth conditions. The price advantage of international corn remains. In the domestic market, the supply of the corn spot market is relatively tight, and the market continues to run strongly. However, the feed demand for corn has decreased as feed enterprises are gradually increasing the purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn. The corn futures price has generally declined in a high - level range, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - Corn starch: Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years. With the obvious weakening of supply pressure and the support of firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch performs relatively well, and the industry inventory continues to decline. The corn starch futures price has generally maintained a volatile trend recently, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of domestic corn futures is 2363 yuan/ton, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 101 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 929730 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 40774 lots, the registered warehouse receipt volume is 209951 lots, and the basis of the main contract is 20.4 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2731 yuan/ton, the month - to - month spread (9 - 11) is 62 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 166865 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13942 lots, the registered warehouse receipt volume is 23322 lots, and the basis of the main contract is - 11 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between the main contracts of corn starch and corn (CS - C) is 368 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 405.75 cents/bushel, the total weekly position is 1534968 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position is - 23326 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2436.67 yuan/ton, the average price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, and the CIF price of imported corn is 1881.04 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2720 yuan/ton, 2940 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Planting area and yield: The predicted planting areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 401.85 million hectares, 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 30.5 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields are 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 3.7 million tons respectively [2]. - Inventory: The corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 113.3 million tons, 371 million tons, and 456.7 million tons respectively [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 130.9 million tons [2][3]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The inventory days of sample feed corn are 32.59 days, and the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 118.92 million tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises are 46.18% and 51.2% respectively [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.24%, the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.76%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 10.23% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil: As of June 28, the harvest progress of the second - season corn in the 2024/25 season is 17.0%, compared with 10.3% a week ago, 47.9% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 28.2% [2]. - US: As of June 29, the silking rate of corn in 18 states accounting for 92% of the national corn planting area is 8%, compared with 4% last week, 10% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 6%. The 2025 US corn planting area is 95.2 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate but 5% higher than in 2024. The corn inventory on June 1, 2025, is 4.644 billion bushels, close to market expectations and 7% lower than in the same period last year [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Focus On - Monitor the weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3].