Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 09:46Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report notes that domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices are running weakly, and consumption is gradually weakening. With enterprises having made more low - price purchases earlier, inventory shipment speed has slowed, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventories are stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and inventories continue to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are back in the previous operating range. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. The report suggests temporarily observing the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 27.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 263,829 lots, down 4,934 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 13,712 lots, down 2,430 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt is 6,624 tons, down 200 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons (weekly), up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 114,900 tons (daily), down 2,575 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 60 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 18.75 dollars/ton, down 8.52 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,160 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons (monthly), up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 23,1836,100 square meters, up 5,347,770 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 18,3851,400 square meters, up 2,737,290 square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 15.54% (daily), down 0.57%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 15.53% (daily), down 0.57% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 7.38% (daily), down 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 16.78% (daily), down 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, stating that if not for tariffs, a rate cut would have occurred, and tariffs are expected to affect inflation [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5. Indicators for raw material payment prices showed signs of slightly accelerating inflation. Import and export indicators were still in contraction, but the decline rate slowed. The order backlog index had the largest decline in a year [3]. - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, the highest since August 2022, and output growth for the fourth consecutive month. New orders stabilized in June [3]. - Facing the July 9 deadline for tariff restart, the Trump administration adjusted its trade negotiation strategy, shifting from seeking a comprehensive reciprocal agreement to a more limited phased agreement to avoid re - imposing severe tariffs on some countries [3].