Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 09:46Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to trade in a narrow range and is expected to remain volatile in the short term. The aquaculture peak season boosts demand, but the ample supply of imported soybeans and the substitution advantage of soybean meal suppress its price [2]. - The rapeseed oil market closed higher with increased short - term volatility. Although the domestic supply is ample and inventory pressure is high, the decline in refinery operating rates eases production pressure, and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect imports [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and rapeseed all changed, with rapeseed oil at 9619 yuan/ton (up 142), rapeseed meal at 2578 yuan/ton (down 8), ICE rapeseed at 709.8 CAD/ton (up 11.1), and rapeseed at 5165 yuan/ton (up 215) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads and positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also had changes, such as the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil at 65 yuan/ton (up 16) and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil at 32659 lots (up 7168) [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related products had fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton (up 50), and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton (down 20) [2]. - The oil - meal ratio was 3.75 (down 0.01), and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also changed [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production was forecasted at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons [2]. - The import rapeseed crushing profit was 107 yuan/ton (down 95), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed refineries was 11.46% (down 2.8) [2]. Industrial Situation - The import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions changed [2]. - The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 3 tons (up 0.19), and that of rapeseed meal was 3.48 tons (up 0.61) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1), and the monthly social retail sales of catering were 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2) [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons (down 87) [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility also changed [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Tuesday. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the US soybean inventory and planting area data were released [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The US soybean market is relatively stable, and the domestic supply of soybeans is increasing, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing, the substitution of soybean meal weakens its demand [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The palm oil market has inventory concerns, and the US fiscal policy supports the development of biodiesel from soybean oil. In China, the supply of vegetable oil is ample, but the decline in refinery operating rates eases the output pressure, and Sino - Canadian relations may affect rapeseed imports [2].