Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 09:46Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. With electricity price cuts in the southwest region, large - scale factories have startup expectations, and small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans, leading to a continuous loose supply. [2] - The demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) for industrial silicon is slowing down. Organic silicon enterprises are reducing production, polysilicon enterprises are operating at reduced loads, and aluminum alloy enterprises are in a passive de - stocking phase. [2] - Today, industrial silicon rebounded near the 60 - day moving average with record - high trading volume. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long term as the fundamental situation has not improved. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,210 yuan/ton, up 445 yuan; the main contract position is 386,361 lots, up 25,285 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 60,569 lots, down 3,026 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 51,916 lots, down 221 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, down 30 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 440 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 542,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,200 tons, down 800 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.03 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 67.17%, down 1.23 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - After a short - term boost from the installation rush, the price of photovoltaic glass has entered a downward range again. Leading enterprises may initiate a new round of joint production cuts to stabilize prices. Some photovoltaic glass enterprises are reducing production or cold - repairing due to low demand and continuous losses, resulting in a decline in overall production capacity. [2] - The "Beautiful Big Bill" proposed by US Senate Republican Leader Thune restricts new energy, affecting the demand in the new energy industry. Under the guidance of the Sixth Financial and Economic Commission of the Central Committee, leading photovoltaic enterprises have cut production by 30%, causing polysilicon to hit the daily limit and driving up the price of industrial silicon. [2]