Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 09:41Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and some spinning enterprises in a state of inventory accumulation and poor profitability, which affects raw material procurement willingness [2]. - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking speed is slow due to the off - season. The market is generally oscillating slightly stronger, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,805 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 30,048 lots, a decrease of 2,088 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 269 lots, a decrease of 59 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton is 560,465 lots, a decrease of 2,771 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,405 lots, an increase of 382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,190, a decrease of 21; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,163 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,688 yuan/ton, down 221 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,925 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,409 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,714 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,257 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 803 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773,700 US dollars, an increase of 197,117,900 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177,300 US dollars, an increase of 5,210,900 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.37%, a decrease of 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.8%, a decrease of 0.02% [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, compared with 47% the previous week and 50% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US in 2025 is 10.12 million acres, higher than the previous market forecast of 9.735 million acres. The actual cotton planting area in the US in 2024 was 11.183 million acres [2].