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瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250702
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly, while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation begins to weaken, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.5%. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, and the position of Shanghai lead is 83,801 lots, an increase of 239 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -179 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 46,439 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,039 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,925 yuan/ton and 17,140 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the lead main contract is -75 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -250 US dollars/ton, a decline of 4.88% [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The supply and demand balance of lead in WBMS is 0.71 million tons. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is -16.33%, and the output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, a decline of 6.75%. The average operating rate of primary lead is 2.96%, and the output is 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons. The refined lead import volume is -1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of refined lead is 223.33 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 20,500 units, with no change. The output of automobiles is 264.2 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. The output of new energy vehicles is 7.3 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. Trump does not consider extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline and doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan. The US Senate passes the "big and beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to vote this week [3]