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政策密集吹风,光伏供给侧有望迎转机
BOCOM International·2025-07-02 09:53

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant policy shift aimed at addressing the overcapacity issues in the photovoltaic sector, with a focus on promoting the exit of outdated production capacities and enhancing product quality [2][5]. - The report notes that the recent comments from high-level meetings reflect a deeper understanding of the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry and a commitment to implementing effective measures [5]. - The report anticipates a turnaround in the supply side of the photovoltaic industry due to forthcoming targeted policies [5]. - It mentions that leading photovoltaic glass manufacturers are planning to collectively reduce production by 30%, which is expected to improve the supply-demand balance [5]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of leading photovoltaic manufacturers, particularly those in the glass and polysilicon sectors, following significant price corrections [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacities and regulate local investment practices that contribute to overcapacity [2]. - The report cites a commentary from the People's Daily that identifies local government actions as a key factor in the current challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the photovoltaic glass production is expected to decline sharply, with July estimates dropping to 45GW, which will help alleviate the current supply-demand imbalance [5]. - It highlights the potential for price recovery in the photovoltaic glass market as a result of reduced production [5]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - Xinyi Solar (968 HK) with a target price of 4.28, indicating a potential upside of 71.9% [6]. - Longi Green Energy (3800 HK) with a target price of 1.49, indicating a potential upside of 49.0% [6]. - Flat Glass Group (6865 HK) with a target price of 11.30, indicating a potential upside of 28.3% [6].