宝城期货国债期货早报-20250702

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - For the financial futures stock index sector, the short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with an overall view of "oscillating" due to the marginally positive manufacturing PMI data [1] - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating". The overall short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly oscillating and consolidating [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is "oscillating", the medium - term is "oscillating", the intraday is "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is "oscillating", with the core logic of marginally positive manufacturing PMI data [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating" [5] - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. The latest manufacturing PMI data is marginally positive, and the central bank's second - quarter regular meeting weakened the statement on interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, reducing the risk appetite for Treasury bonds [5] - There are still structural problems in domestic demand, and the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, providing sufficient support for Treasury bonds [5] - External geopolitical and tariff factors have cooled down, but external risks are still uncertain, and the bond market as an equilibrium allocation is still attracting funds in the short term [5] - Attention should be paid to the policy guidance in the second half of the year and the evolution of external risks in the future [5]