宝城期货煤焦早报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on the futures of coking coal and coke, suggesting a volatile trading approach for both. For coking coal, the supply pressure is emerging again, leading to a volatile downward adjustment. For coke, due to the game between multiple and short positions, it shows low - level volatility. [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Cost: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton. [5] - Supply: Coal mines in Changzhi and Qinyuan that were shut down due to safety inspections are gradually resuming production, and concerns about coking coal supply have resurfaced, driving the futures price to adjust downward. The supply side is a key focus of market games, and the actual production in the main producing areas needs to be continuously tracked. [5] - Demand: The demand for coking coal is currently stable. [5] - Market Outlook: It is expected that the main coking coal contract will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production volume of Shanxi coal mines in July. [5] Coke (J) - Price: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1220 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1160 yuan/ton, with a 1.75% week - on - week increase. [6] - Cost and Supply: After the end of the national safety production month in June, the safety inspection pressure in the main coking coal producing areas has gradually eased, and coking coal production may increase, causing supply disturbances at the cost end and driving a slight intraday decline in coke. [6] - Profit and Production: After the fourth price cut of coke on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises in the latest sample is - 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The operating pressure of coking plants has increased, and their enthusiasm for increasing production is average. [6] - Demand: As of the week of June 27, the average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide is 242.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills is 59.31%, with a flat week - on - week change. [6] - Market Outlook: The risk of increased coking coal production in July has started to materialize, and coke may maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the near future. Attention should be paid to the actual production volume of coking coal recently. [6]