宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways movement with a slight upward bias. The recommended approach is to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are beneficial to the gold price [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all upward. The recommended approach is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the recovery of macro - risk appetite drives the copper price up [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - Price Performance: The gold price rebounded significantly yesterday. After the Asian market closed, the overseas market continued to rebound, and both domestic and overseas gold prices rose above the 60 - day moving average again [3]. - Core Logic: The recent increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index have provided strong support for the gold price. FedWatch Tool data shows that the probability of three interest rate cuts this year exceeds 50%. Also, Trump not extending the deadline for trade - agreement negotiations has increased market concerns about US tariffs, leading to a significant rebound in the gold price. However, the overall market is not overly pessimistic as the US stock market has only slightly corrected from its high. Continued attention should be paid to the multi - empty game around the 60 - day moving average [3]. Copper - Price Performance: The copper price increased significantly with increased positions at the end of trading yesterday, and the main contract price rose to around 80,700 yuan [5]. - Core Logic: At the macro level, the rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and the continuous decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to the copper price. At the industrial level, the premium of LME copper has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper in the spot market. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper has been continuously decreasing, and downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The combination of macro and industrial positive factors has pushed up the copper price. Technically, after the main copper contract price broke through 80,000 yuan, it increased significantly with increased positions, showing strong upward momentum. It is expected that the contract price will maintain a strong trend, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5].