五矿期货农产品早报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. Each product faces a unique set of market conditions, with both bullish and bearish factors influencing their prices. The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, trade policies, and weather conditions [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - Market Conditions: US soybeans were nearly flat on Tuesday, with a minor adjustment in the USDA area report and a muted market reaction. Favorable weather and the trade war are pressuring US soybeans, but low valuations provide some support. In China, the spot price of soybean meal fell by about 10 yuan, with a high but decreasing oil mill operating rate, weakening meal sales, and strong提货. The domestic port soybean inventory was 8.09 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, showing a continuous inventory build - up trend [2]. - Cost and Supply: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill crushing volume is at a record high for the same period, leading to reduced downstream buying interest, faster inventory build - up, and a depressed domestic soybean meal valuation. Although the import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating due to low valuations, EPA policy support, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, the overall supply of soybeans or protein remains excessive [4]. - Trading Strategy: Given the mixed market situation, it is recommended to test long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils - Important Information: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in June, while production showed a mixed trend. Brazil's expected soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in June have changed compared to previous forecasts. The domestic oil market was oscillating on Tuesday, with weak global oil import data weighing on prices. However, low Indian inventories, potential minor inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in June, and biodiesel policy support provided some upward momentum [6]. - Market Outlook: The US biodiesel policy draft has supported the oil price center, but the current high valuation limits the upside potential due to factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, macroeconomic conditions, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt an oscillating view of the oil market [9]. Sugar - Market Performance: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of different sugar producers showed mixed trends. In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a significant decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production compared to the same period last year. The delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is expected to be the lowest since 2014 [11]. - Trading Strategy: Considering the low - price and low - volume delivery of the July raw sugar contract, the chaotic domestic futures spread structure, and the high profit margin of out - of - quota sugar imports after the decline in foreign prices, the sugar price may continue to fall [12]. Cotton - Market Situation: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The US 2025 cotton planting area forecast by USDA is higher than market expectations, and the US cotton good - to - excellent rate has improved compared to the previous week. In China, the recent expectation of Sino - US negotiations is supporting the cotton price, but the rapidly strengthening basis is unfavorable for downstream consumption, slowing down the inventory reduction speed, and there is a possibility of import quota issuance in the future [14][15]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the cotton price may continue to oscillate. Pay close attention to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [15]. Eggs - Spot Market: The national egg price was stable with some declines. The supply changed little, while the demand was conservative, and industry players were cautious. The egg price is expected to be stable in most areas and slightly weaker in some regions [16]. - Trading Strategy: Given the weak and stable spot price, the time is unfavorable for long positions in the near - month contracts. However, the later the seasonal price increase occurs, the greater the potential divergence in the peak - season contracts. Considering the large production capacity and insufficient de - stocking, the medium - term strategy is to wait for price rebounds to short, and in the short term, reduce short positions at low prices or adopt a wait - and - see approach for near - month contracts [17]. Pigs - Spot Market: The domestic pig price continued to rise on the previous day. The supply of pigs for slaughter may still be limited, but most downstream buyers are resistant to high - price pigs, and the supply of pigs for slaughter may gradually increase, limiting the upward space of the pig price [19]. - Trading Strategy: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to take short - term long positions at appropriate low prices before delivery. For contracts in the second half of the year such as 11 and 01, since their valuations are above the cost line and they are likely to experience a transition from inventory build - up to de - stocking, wait for high - price opportunities to short [20].