Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Copper prices are mainly driven by the tight supply - demand situation caused by cross - regional flow due to the copper tariff, and future price fluctuations will be affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [10]. - For crude oil, with the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks and seasonal factors, the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to cautiously buy bearish options [11][12]. - For asphalt, as it enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices while operating cautiously [13]. - PP, plastic, and PVC are all expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern due to factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and falling crude oil prices [15][16][18]. - The upward momentum of soybean oil has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [19]. - For rebar, if the production - restriction rumors continue to ferment or materialize, there is still room for an upward movement, but the risk of a pull - back due to rumor falsification should be watched out for [21]. - For hot - rolled coils, if production restrictions are intensified and demand does not weaken significantly, it may maintain a strong oscillation pattern; otherwise, weak demand may limit its upward space [22]. - For coking coal, although there is a tight supply expectation, the upward space is limited due to weak demand [24]. - For urea, it is mainly in a consolidation phase and still faces downward pressure [25][26]. Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium has increased. The supply side shows that upstream prices are firm, and the production cost and output of domestic carbonate lithium are rising. The demand side indicates that downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and the overall production capacity is loose. The upward trend is mainly due to market sentiment, and the upward space is limited [3]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal closed down 0.57%. Internationally, the new US tax bill may benefit US soybean growers, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is lower than expected. Domestically, the inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal has increased. It is expected to show an oscillatory adjustment pattern [4][5]. Copper - The Shanghai copper market showed a strong trend. The US manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for four months. The supply of copper is still increasing, and the inventory in most regions is decreasing. The export demand has increased due to the copper tariff event, but the overall demand is weak. The main logic for the price increase is the tight supply expectation caused by cross - regional flow [9][10]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention in Iran, the subsequent retaliatory actions and cease - fire have affected market sentiment. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but the Middle - East geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. It is recommended to cautiously buy bearish options [11][12]. Asphalt - The supply side shows that the start - up rate has rebounded, and the expected output in July has increased. The demand side indicates that the start - up rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the inventory is at a low level. With the easing of geopolitical risks, it is recommended to operate cautiously and buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate has increased. The inventory pressure is high. With the sharp drop in crude oil prices, it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [14][15]. Plastic - The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The inventory pressure is high. With the sharp drop in crude oil prices, it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [16]. PVC - The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is low. The export is restricted, and the inventory is high. With the sharp drop in crude oil prices, it is recommended to short at high prices [17][18]. Soybean Oil - The main 09 contract of soybean oil closed up 0.63%. Internationally, the US soybean planting area is slightly lower than expected, and the quarterly inventory is higher. Domestically, the oil - mill start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [19]. Rebar - The main contract showed a trend of "bottom - fishing and upward movement". The supply contraction expectation has increased due to production - restriction rumors, but the demand is weak. The raw material prices have rebounded. If the rumors materialize, there is upward space, but there is also a risk of a pull - back [20][21]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The main contract showed an "oscillatory upward and breakthrough" pattern. The supply - demand structure is characterized by "continued inventory reduction and rigid - demand support". The production has slightly increased, the inventory pressure is small, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to focus on production - restriction implementation and policy trends [22]. Coking Coal - The price closed up more than 3%. The supply side is expected to contract due to safety inspections and capacity - clearance expectations. The demand side is relatively weak. The upward space is limited due to weak demand [24]. Urea - The futures price showed a strong oscillation. The supply side has both maintenance and resumption of production, and the daily output fluctuates slightly. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is mainly reduced through exports. It is mainly in a consolidation phase and faces downward pressure [25][26].
冠通每日交易策略-20250702
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-02 11:06