流动性和机构行为周度观察：7月流动性预计延续稳定宽松状态-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July 2025, liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. From the perspective of bank assets and liabilities, July is not a traditional large credit month, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) in July is significantly lower than that in June. From the perspective of central bank liquidity injection, considering the external uncertainties caused by trade frictions, the central bank is expected to maintain a supportive attitude in terms of liquidity injection. However, the long - term bond yield is still at a relatively low level, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market has risen above 108% as the funding rate declines, so the room for further loosening of the funding situation is limited [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - Central Bank's Net Injection: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 126.72 billion yuan. The open - market reverse repurchase of 2027.5 billion yuan will expire from June 30 to July 4. In June, the MLF net injection was 11.8 billion yuan, and the net injection of outright reverse repurchase was 20 billion yuan [6]. - Funding Rate: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.44% respectively, with a decrease of 0.5 basis points and an increase of 0.6 basis points compared to June 16 - 20. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.65% and 1.82% respectively, with an increase of 12.8 basis points and 24.0 basis points compared to June 16 - 20 [7]. - Government Bond Net Payment: From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 78.98 billion yuan, an increase of about 31.56 billion yuan compared to June 16 - 22. From June 30 to July 6, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be about - 0.594 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (ICDs) - Yield Changes: As of June 27, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M ICDs were 1.6650% and 1.6150% respectively, rising 4 basis points and 1 basis point compared to June 20, while the 1Y ICD yield was basically the same as that on June 20 [9]. - Maturity Scale: The ICDs have passed the peak maturity period. The maturity scale of ICDs in July is about 2.8 trillion yuan. From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the net financing of ICDs was about - 41.14 billion yuan [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior The leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.45%, compared with 108.25% from June 16 to June 20 [10].