宝城期货橡胶早报-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a focus on their weak supply - demand structures [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][5] - Core Logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Supply is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. Although the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained a stable oscillating trend on Tuesday night, rising 0.36% to 14025 yuan/ton, it lacks upward space. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][7] - Core Logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the synthetic rubber market re - dominate. The operating loads of some private cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up last week's production and capacity utilization rate. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. In the context of a weak supply - demand structure, the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday night, falling 0.89% to 11120 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]