南华纸浆产业风险管理日报：震荡偏弱-20250702

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View - The SP2509 contract rebounded with a decrease in positions today, closing at 5076, up 0.56%. From a supply - demand perspective, the weakness persists. The falling external quotes and high - fluctuating imports suppress price increases. High port inventories and weak demand in the off - season make de - stocking difficult and create large inventory pressure. Although there will be a peak demand season after August with some stocking needs, it hasn't started yet. However, the current absolute price is at a low level, and continuous price drops may touch the upper edge of overseas pulp mills' cost lines, which will resist further price declines. With the policy influence of the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st, the commodity has short - term upward rebound momentum due to sentiment. The strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 20.91%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 68.0% [3] Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For those with high coniferous pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [3] - Procurement Management: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4900 - 5100 [3] Market Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and macro - policy support [5] - Likely Negative Factors: Continuous decline in overseas pulp quotes [5] Price Quotes - Futures Contracts: On July 2, 2025, SP2507 was at 5048 yuan/ton (down 0.24% week - on - week), SP2509 was at 5072 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and SP2511 was at 5068 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - CFR Quotes: On July 1, 2025, coniferous pulp was at 870 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and broad - leaf pulp was at 800 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - Domestic Spot Prices: Various types of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp in different regions showed price changes on July 2, 2025, with most showing slight declines [5] - Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices: Copper - plate paper was at 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), white - card paper was at 4410 yuan/ton (up 1.15% week - on - week), tissue paper was at 5900 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and offset paper was at 5700 yuan/ton (down 1.72% week - on - week) [7]