出口深度思考系列一：出口跟踪：3问，40+数，50+图

Group 1: Export Growth Predictions - The current month’s export growth rate is showing marginal weakness but remains resilient, with the monitoring of port container throughput being the most practical high-frequency indicator[2] - The global manufacturing PMI from JPMorgan indicates a continued weakening in overall trade demand, with the PMI dropping below the neutral line in May[3] - The export volume is expected to continue with a strong price but weak price structure, as indicated by the PPI trends[4] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - China’s "excess" exports from March to May amounted to approximately $50.4 billion, representing about 17% of the average export value for the first five months of the year[5] - The U.S. has seen a significant increase in imports, with an estimated excess of $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly imports[6] - The transfer port trade ratio is estimated to be between 41% and 58.7%, indicating a notable shift in trade patterns[8] Group 3: Annual Export Forecasts - The annual export growth rate is projected to range from -5% to 0%, depending on the occurrence of systemic risks[9] - Global trade demand is expected to decline, with the WTO predicting a decrease in global trade volume growth to -0.2% for 2025, which is 3 percentage points lower than previous forecasts[10] - The risk of export transfer is monitored through various indicators, with the gap between U.S. import growth and Chinese export growth widening significantly in the first quarter[11]