Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-02 11:43Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights significant opportunities in the storage sector driven by continuous price increases, AI catalysis, and accelerated domestic production [2][3][5] - The semiconductor storage market is expected to gradually recover starting from the end of March 2025, with both DRAM and NAND entering an upward price channel [3][16] - The demand for storage is being propelled by AI applications, with expectations for substantial growth in HBM and DDR5 demand by 2025 [4][81] Summary by Sections Price Analysis - The report anticipates sustained price increases in Q3 and Q4, with DDR4 leading the market due to supply-side reforms and production cuts by major manufacturers [15][19] - DRAM and NAND prices are expected to rise significantly, with PC DDR4 contract prices projected to increase by 18-23% in Q3 [24][31] Supply Side - The Chinese semiconductor storage market is projected to grow from approximately 394.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 458 billion yuan in 2025, with DRAM holding the largest market share [59][61] - Major overseas manufacturers are reducing production, benefiting domestic companies and increasing their market share [59][63] Demand Side - The report indicates that DRAM and NAND are entering a long growth cycle, with DRAM demand capacity expected to grow by 16% in 2024 and 15% in 2025 [81][83] - The demand for enterprise-level SSDs is expected to rise significantly, with AI infrastructure driving performance and capacity upgrades [4][81] Technology Trends - The report discusses advancements in 3D NAND technology and the transition to higher efficiency DRAM processes, with expectations for 300-layer NAND production by 2025 [72][73] - The integration of AI technologies is expected to enhance the performance and capacity of storage solutions, particularly in enterprise applications [4][5] Company Dynamics - Domestic storage manufacturers are accelerating their technological advancements and production capabilities, with companies like Jiangbolong and Baiwei Storage leading the charge in high-end storage solutions [5][6][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-developed controllers and high-end technology in building competitive advantages for domestic firms [5][6]