黑色金属日报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various commodities are as follows: - Rebar: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market sentiment is fermenting on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is affected by the rising expectation of industrial product supply - side reform and recent production restrictions in Tangshan. Most commodities are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3][4][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Commodities Steel - Today's steel futures prices rebounded significantly. Rebar's apparent demand stabilized in the short term, production continued to rise, and inventory depletion slowed down. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory slightly accumulated. Currently, blast furnaces still have profits, hot metal production remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation has eased. The downstream industries show that infrastructure recovery lacks sustainability, real - estate sales hover at a low level, and investment and new construction indicators continue to decline significantly. The manufacturing industry still has some resilience as the June PMI rose to 49.7. The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures prices rose today. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and there is an expectation of a further decline in the future. Domestic arrivals decreased, and short - term arrivals are expected to remain at a relatively high level. Port inventories have stabilized, and there is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory for the time being. On the demand side, terminal demand in the off - season met expectations, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and hot metal production remains at a relatively high level. Recent news of production restrictions in Tangshan and anti - cut - throat competition has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction, and short - term market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and it is expected to follow the trend of finished steel and show a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. There is an expectation of price increases from coking plants, production profits are meager, and daily coking production has continued to decline from the annual high. The overall coke inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness remains low. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, hot metal production in the off - season has not declined, and the market has some optimistic expectations. The coke futures prices have rebounded, and it is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may lead to a decline in output. The production of coking coal mines has continued to decline, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections during the safety production month. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and the transaction price has risen slightly. Terminal inventory has continued to decline, and the total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the short term. Coking coal is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose during the day. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level has decreased, but weekly production has begun to rise, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has changed from a decrease to an increase. In the medium - to - long - term, manganese ore inventory has been increasing, and in the short - term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines' willingness to hold prices has increased. In the short - term, the spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are in short supply, and the price has slightly increased. Silicomanganese has followed the trend of rebar, but its fundamental improvement is limited, and there is significant pressure above 6750 [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose during the day. Hot metal production remains above 242. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, market trading volume is average, on - balance - sheet inventory has continued to decline, but production - end inventory has begun to accumulate, mainly due to the decline in warehouse receipt inventory. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery from the futures market and reselling to downstream customers, which is conducive to inventory depletion. It is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [8]