黑色产业数据每日监测-20250702

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures showed strong performance on July 2nd. The alloy supply - demand pattern has no significant change, and the stable cost supports the futures price. The short - term double - silicon futures may be mainly driven by sector sentiment, and future macro - policy trends need to be focused on [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 2nd, black - series commodity futures were strong. The closing price of rebar was 3065 yuan/ton, up 2.61%; hot - rolled coil's main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 2.24%; iron ore's main contract closed at 722.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke rose by over 3% [1]. Market Analysis - Demand: The steel production restriction news in Tangshan had a certain negative impact on the alloy sentiment, but the overall impact on production was limited. The long - process steel mills had good profitability, with low willingness to cut production. The short - term rigid demand for alloys remained resilient, supporting the double - silicon futures prices [1]. - Supply: For ferromanganese, the northern production area maintained high - level operation, and the southern area had both production increase and decrease. The ferromanganese production had increased slightly for several weeks, which might restrict the futures and spot prices. For ferrosilicon, the profit margin was shrinking, the production was relatively stable at a low level, which might support the futures market. [1] - Cost: For ferromanganese, the coking coal price was stable, but there was an expectation of looser production. The manganese ore market was firm, and the cost was slightly bullish. For ferrosilicon, the downstream demand for semi - coke was weak, but the cost still provided support, and the short - term price might remain stable with limited driving effect on the futures [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors should take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors should take a high - level consolidation view in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double - coking: Pay attention to the post - decline stabilization and oscillation market or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].