Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose. The outlook for soybean meal is short - term weak with potential for long - term price increase, and the live hog market is expected to be volatile in the medium - term [1][2][17]. - The weather in the US Midwest is expected to improve crop growth, which may impact the soybean market [3][4]. - Various macro and industry news such as US soybean压榨 volume, import costs, and livestock product prices have implications for the soybean meal and live hog markets [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed 0.57% lower at 2961 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose 3.43% to 14340 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 15.21 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract was flat at 1028 cents/bushel [1][2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest, there will be showers in some areas in the coming days, which may help improve crop growth. A stagnant front brought heavy rain to the north, and another front will bring showers. The warm and wet weather is beneficial for crop growth in many areas [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - US soybean压榨 volume in a certain month was 6.11 million tons, higher than the previous month and last year. Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased on July 2nd [5]. - On July 1st, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased. The CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased [5]. - The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in June was adjusted. The estimated live hog average price in the second half of 2025 is 14 - 16 yuan/kg [6][7]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket" product index decreased on July 1st. The prices of pork, beef, mutton, eggs, and other agricultural products also declined [7]. - The US 6 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, in the contraction range, and the May JOLTS job vacancies were 7.769 million, higher than expected [7]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: US soybean futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 contract is in a narrow - range bottom - shaking pattern, while the M01 contract may rise. The soybean meal spot price is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a possible break below 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis may decline slightly [16][17]. - Live Hogs: In the short - term, live hog futures prices may rebound due to reduced supply and positive policies. However, in the medium - term, the increase in supply and weak demand limit the upside of the spot price, and the market will be volatile [17][18].
豆粕生猪:现货成交清淡,连粕小幅回落
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-07-02 12:19