Great Wall Securities·2025-07-02 12:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power and a "Hold" rating for Longyuan Power and Chuanwei Energy, with expected EPS for 2025E at 0.42, 0.79, and 1.05 respectively [1][6]. Core Views - The report highlights a 4.4% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption in May 2025, with total consumption reaching 809.6 billion kWh [3][33]. - The report notes that the public utility sector index has seen a slight increase of 0.09% during the week of June 23-29, 2025, ranking 28th among 31 sectors [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new energy policies, which are expected to stabilize expected returns and improve existing projects, while also increasing the scale of new projects [6][38]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The public utility sector index PE (TTM) is at 17.04, slightly down from 17.09 the previous week, and down from 18.16 a year ago [1][20]. - The sector's PB remains stable at 1.71, unchanged from the previous week and down from 1.89 a year ago [1][23]. - The report indicates that the sector's performance is lagging behind major indices, with a 1.82 percentage point deficit compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][9]. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration reported a total installed power generation capacity of 3.61 billion kW by the end of May 2025, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase [33][34]. - The report details that the average utilization hours for power generation equipment have decreased by 132 hours compared to the previous year [34]. - New pricing mechanisms for electricity in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are introduced, with competitive bidding ranges set for new projects [35][38]. Key Data Tracking - As of June 30, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is reported at 615 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0.82% [40]. - The report tracks green certificate trading, with a total of 88.16 and 82.35 thousand transactions for wind and solar power respectively during the week of June 23-29, 2025 [41][44]. - The report also notes the CEA trading volumes for the week, with a total of 138.6 thousand tons traded on June 27, 2025, at an average price of 74.96 RMB/ton [46][48].