家用电器行业2025年中期策略：承压前行，稳中求进

Core Insights - The report indicates that the home appliance industry is under pressure but aims for steady progress, with a focus on the impact of policies such as the old-for-new program [1] 2025 Mid-Year Summary - The home appliance sector has experienced a slight decline in valuation, with the industry index down 3.8% from January 1 to June 23, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points [7][18] - Domestic sales have shown significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 30.2% in retail sales of home appliances from January to May 2025, driven by the old-for-new policy [27][28] - The export market has also demonstrated resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.2% in appliance exports from January to May 2025, despite tariff concerns [27][28] 2025 Second Half Outlook - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the continuation of the old-for-new policy, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for subsidies in 2025, of which 162 billion yuan has already been utilized [39][40] - The report anticipates that the cost pressures from raw materials will remain manageable, with only copper prices showing a significant increase of 15.5% year-to-date [46][49] - The white goods sector is projected to maintain stable growth, benefiting from the old-for-new policy, with recommended stocks including Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home [8][10] Long-Term Outlook - The report highlights trends towards diversification, globalization, and smart home technology in the home appliance industry, with a focus on high-end consumer potential and cost-performance considerations [39][43]