碳酸锂湖南企业调研

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The recycling and lithium mica supply chain links are under the most pressure due to high costs, profit inversion, and long - term losses, leading to an accelerated industry reshuffle [1] - The industry is optimistic about the long - term prospects, but this may interfere with the normal industry cycle and delay capacity reduction and clearing, and the clearing time and price decline may be more prolonged without policy support [1] - The use of futures tools is crucial for some enterprises to survive in adversity, and efforts should be made to strengthen futures services for the industry [1] Summary by Company Carbonate Lithium Trading Enterprise A - Founded in May 2011, shifted to new energy in 2015. Main products are carbonate lithium, hydroxide lithium, and ore. Aims to sell 50,000 tons of carbonate lithium and achieve 3 - 4 billion yuan in revenue by 2025 [2] - Has a professional futures team, combines spot and futures trading for price risk management. The proportion of long - term contracts has dropped to about 30% [2] - Lithium spodumene processing fee is 18,000 - 20,000 yuan/ton. It has no self - owned mines and relies on package sales or spot purchases. The industry has a consensus on supply surplus, and production costs have decreased [2] - Can match suitable raw materials for downstream customers. The actual demand is not as bad as expected, but the second - quarter direct market purchases were insufficient. Downstream demand is in a negative feedback loop [2][3] University B - Solid - state batteries are not yet mature for commercialization, at a 4 - 5 level on a 1 - 9 scale. It may take 5 - 10 years to achieve results, and lithium consumption may not increase significantly. It may first be applied in the 3C sector [4][5] - Sodium batteries are unlikely to replace lithium batteries but can be a supplement. They can be used in fields with high requirements for charge - discharge speed and output power [5] - Lithium slag can be processed by extracting lithium into brine or solidifying it for construction use [6] Lithium Battery Recycling Enterprise C - Has production bases in Hunan and Zhejiang. Production decreased from 3,000 tons last year to 1,000 tons this year and stopped production since April. The recycling market is almost stagnant [8] - Raw materials are mainly from external purchases, with unstable sources. The prices of raw materials and carbonate lithium are inverted. Most iron - lithium recycling has stopped, and about 40% - 50% of ternary recycling has stopped [8] - The cost of wet - process production lines is 15,000 - 18,000 yuan, and that of crushing lines is 1,000 - 1,500 yuan. The planned iron - lithium recycling capacity exceeds 2.5 million tons, but the actual raw materials are less than 500,000 tons [9] - Tries to improve waste utilization, processes special raw materials, and seeks cooperation with large enterprises. There is no opportunity for hedging this year [9] Cathode Material Enterprise D - Capacity utilization in Q1 was 93%, and the market share is 29%. The industry's Q2 capacity utilization was 55% [9] - The price of lithium iron phosphate is closely linked to the price of carbonate lithium, and the cost has decreased from 80% to 60%. It adopts a diversified procurement strategy [9] - Is optimistic about the second half of the year but not about July - August and Q3. New products are in short supply, and the proportion of high - density products is increasing [10] - Has difficulty accepting exchange - delivered goods due to new downstream requirements. The raw material inventory is normal, and it mainly purchases on - demand. It is optimistic about the annual demand but not about July - August [11] Battery Production Enterprise E - Has a refined operation and management style. The consumption - type products are growing, with a year - on - year increase of over 20%. The current production is almost full, and the downstream demand has increased by about 16% [12] - Believes that the cancellation of mandatory energy storage has limited negative impact. It has overseas energy - storage markets in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa [12] - Plans a 30,000 - ton capacity in Jiangxi. In 2024, the output was about 6,000 tons, and it is expected to be 8,000 tons in 2025. The current external procurement ratio of lithium ore is about 50%, and the production cost is expected to decrease [12][13] Battery Recycling Enterprise F - The industry is facing waste - price inversion due to over - capacity. Only a few large wet - process plants are still operating, and the market focuses on cost - reduction [14] - The factors triggering production cuts are complex. The company hedges all inventory and sells products quickly. It expects raw material release after 2027 [14] - The supply of waste batteries may improve next year. Some large enterprises are exploring overseas recycling [15][16]