化工日报-20250702

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and currently having a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The trading logic of the methanol market has gradually shifted from the macro - level to the fundamentals, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]. - The urea market is affected by sentiment and marginal improvement in supply - demand, with short - term prices expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. - The short - term fundamentals of the polyolefin market are weak, with the market sentiment of downstream buyers being cautious [4]. - The styrene market has insufficient supply - demand support, and the mainstream prices in various regions have declined [5]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to have a more relaxed supply - demand pattern in the future, and the processing margin, basis, and monthly spread are under pressure [6]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate within a bottom - range [6]. - The short - fiber market has seen a rebound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of inventory accumulation and production cuts [6]. - The bottle - chip market has implemented production cuts to reduce inventory, but the demand is also declining [6]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and be in a low - level oscillation in the long term [7]. - The caustic soda market is pushed up by costs in the short term and faces supply pressure in the long term [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high inventory and weak demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The soda ash market is boosted by macro - sentiment in the short term, but the price is expected to have limited upward movement [8]. Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol has risen. During the Israel - Iran conflict, the reduction in ship loading in the Middle East was limited. Domestic device operation has increased, and port inventory has accumulated significantly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]. Urea - The urea futures price has risen. There is still some agricultural demand, and the inventory of production enterprises has decreased. After the port inspection was relaxed, port inventory has increased. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. Polyolefin - The main futures contracts of polyolefins have shown narrow - range consolidation. Petrochemical enterprises have lowered the ex - factory prices of LLDPE, and the market sentiment of downstream buyers is cautious [4]. Styrene - The main futures contract of styrene has fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, and the styrene market has insufficient supply - demand support [5]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices have oscillated. The polyester operation rate has slightly decreased. The supply - demand pattern is expected to become more relaxed in the future. Ethylene glycol prices have rebounded due to overseas device outages. The short - fiber market has rebounded, and the bottle - chip market has implemented production cuts [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The PVC market has high supply pressure, weak domestic demand, and the export orders may weaken. The caustic soda market is pushed up by costs in the short term and faces supply pressure in the long term [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass market has a pattern of high inventory and weak demand, and the price has risen due to policy factors. The soda ash market is boosted by macro - sentiment, but the demand is expected to decline [8].