银河期货粕类日报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows some pressure, with a limited rebound followed by a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but relatively firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate, with limited support from demand and limited upside space due to high inventory. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen in the future [4][7]. - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, but there is a lack of substantial bullish factors in production and exports. The supply pressure of the international soybean market is concentrated in South America, especially in Brazil and Argentina [5]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal market has sufficient supply but weakening demand, and is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market fluctuates, lacking obvious driving factors. The domestic soybean meal futures market declines slightly, and the rapeseed meal futures market is weak. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changes little. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures fluctuates, while that of rapeseed meal futures rebounds [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The new US soybean balance sheet improves due to biodiesel policies, but there is no substantial bullish news in production and exports. As of the week ending June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%. As of the week ending June 12, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans is 215,800 tons. The US soybean crushing data in May is good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is slow, and the pressure on prices is emerging. The Brazilian soybean crushing volume decreases, and the export may increase. The domestic crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may also increase [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.4878 million tons, the operating rate is 69.93%, the soybean inventory is 6.6587 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 278,800 tons (4.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons (17.68%); the soybean meal inventory is 691,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182,700 tons (35.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 361,400 tons (34.32%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand weakens, and although the operating rate of oil mills decreases, the supply is still sufficient, and the inventory increases. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 43,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory is 188,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 11,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons [6]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London is completed, but there is no clear information. The market is worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows pressure, with a limited rebound and then a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. The rapeseed meal futures market fluctuates, with limited upside space due to weak demand and high inventory. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures has support, and that of rapeseed meal futures is strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side: It is recommended to buy a small amount of long positions in the far - month soybean meal futures [8]. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM09 spread [8]. - Options: Wait and see [8].